EnergyOMNI's Perspectives I IEA Updates Report on the 2030 Tripling Renewable Energy Capacity Pledge

Edited by EnergyOMNI

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has recently published a report titled "COP28 Tripling Renewable Capacity Pledge 2025: Update", which tracks the latest progress as of 2025 on the pledge made at COP28 to triple global renewable energy capacity.

At the COP28 climate conference held in Dubai in 2023, Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC) made a landmark commitment on energy, agreeing to triple global installed renewable energy capacity by 2030 in order to keep the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C within reach.

In June 2024, the IEA released its "COP28 Tripling Renewable Capacity Pledge" report, taking stock of global renewable capacity plans. The December 2025 update reviews all the latest Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs 3.0) submitted by countries up to the conclusion of COP30 in November, and quantifies national renewable energy targets through 2030. It also examines updates to national policies and plans across nearly 200 countries between June 2024 and December 2025, assessing how renewable capacity targets have changed compared with the previous report.

The report's key findings include:

First, the commitment to tripling global renewable energy capacity is still only weakly reflected in the latest NDC 3.0 submissions. Only around two-thirds of countries have updated their NDCs (128 submissions in total). Among these, just 53 explicitly reference the global tripling target; only 32 include quantifiable indicators (such as the share of renewable electricity), and just 9 clearly specify total installed capacity targets for 2030. Second, overall, NDC 3.0 submissions do not fully reflect countries' actual ambitions for renewable energy capacity by 2030. Under NDC 2.0, global renewable capacity commitments for 2030 amounted to around 1,600 GW, whereas in the current NDC 3.0 round, capacity commitments for 2030 total only 170 GW. The IEA identifies two main reasons for this discrepancy: first, not all countries have submitted updated NDCs; and second, the current NDC cycle extends to 2035, with many countries setting targets only for 2035 and not updating their 2030 targets. The IEA estimates that current national renewable capacity commitments amount to just 14% of the capacity required to meet the 2030 tripling goal (approximately 11,450 GW), leaving a substantial gap to be closed.

Between 2024 and 2025, 101 out of 189 countries updated their policy actions. Of these, about half (51 countries) increased their renewable energy targets, 29 maintained their existing targets, and 21 reduced them. After accounting for both upward revisions and downward adjustments, the net increase in global renewable capacity targets compared with last year is around 6%, equivalent to 453 GW.

By region, China accounts for the largest increase in newly added capacity targets, followed by the Middle East and North Africa. In contrast, target increases in Asia–Pacific (excluding China) and Europe are relatively limited. The Americas record the largest decline in targets, largely due to a series of anti-renewable policies introduced following the inauguration of U.S. President Donald Trump. The IEA also quantifies 2030 renewable energy targets by region in the report, as shown in the accompanying table.

By technology, of the renewable capacity targets set for 2030, around one-third are for solar photovoltaics, 19% for wind power, and 18% for hydropower, while 29% cannot be attributed to a specific technology because the original documents do not specify the technology type.

IEA estimates RE capacity target in regions by 2030

* China does not have an official total renewable capacity ambition for 2030. The renewable energy capacity trajectory in is based on various modelling results. The estimation is considering recent policy announcements and modelling updates that incorporate recent deployment and cost reduction trends.