EnergyOMNI's Perspectives I 27 Countries Have Set National Targets For Offshore Wind

Edited by EnergyOMNI

According to Ember's latest report, a total of 27 countries have set national targets for offshore wind. Among the 27 countries with national targets, 22 have a national target for 2030, 18 have a post-2030 target and 7 include specific floating offshore wind targets.

The combined 2030 targets add up to 263 GW. 16 countries with targets are in Europe. United Kingdom is the country with the largest national target, ranging from 43 GW to 50 GW. Germany (30 GW) and the Netherlands (21 GW) account for over half of the capacity in the EU. Other Asian countries: South Korea, Taiwan, Japan and Vietnam together account for the remaining 41 GW.

After taking office in 2025, South Korean President Lee Jae-myung proposed raising the 2030 offshore wind target from the current 14.3 GW to 20 GW, although the 20 GW target has not yet been formally legislated. His policy agenda includes developing the Jeolla region, the southwest coast, and Jeju Island into offshore wind industry hubs, with offshore wind power supplying electricity to major industrial zones.

In February this year, the National Assembly passed "Special Act on the Promotion of Offshore Wind Power Distribution and Industrial Development", which streamlines and centralizes the development framework, shifting to a government-led system with a "one-stop" permitting process. The new law is scheduled to take effect in March 2026.

Japan Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae took office in October. Takaichi wants to leverage domestic resources not subject to geopolitical risks, such as offshore wind, geothermal. Though she has skeptical views on introducing (foreign-made) solar panels, perovskite solar cells are an exception, supporting the widespread use of "Japan-developed perovskite solar cells". However, no further offshore wind development plans have been announced by the Takaichi Cabinet so far.

Notably, China does not yet have a national target by 2030. However, in late September, China announced a new Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), setting a target to increase wind and solar installed capacity to more than six times the 2020 level, reaching 3,600 GW by 2035. If China's offshore wind capacity is included, the global offshore wind target for 2030 would be significantly higher than the currently reported 263 GW.

As for the US, the goal of installing 30 GW of offshore wind capacity by 2030 was set by the Biden administration. After Donald Trump sworn in for his second term in January, he vowed to "end" the offshore wind industry. Policy shifts included announcing a suspension of offshore wind seabed leasing permits, ordering several already-approved projects to halt construction for further review, and significantly advancing the expiration deadlines for renewable energy tax credits. The industry estimates suggest by 2030, around 14 GW to 16 GW of capacity could still be completed. However, some analysts project a more pessimistic outlook, saying the figure could fall to only about 7 GW.

National Offshore Wind Target

Source: Ember

Beyond the US, many other countries are also unlikely to fully meet their 2030 targets. In Europe, the Netherlands' recent 1 GW offshore wind tender, which closed on October 30, received no bids from developers. Similarly, Germany's 2.5 GW auction held in August attracted no participants, and Denmark's 3 GW tender in 2024 also failed to receive any applications—it is now expected to be re-tendered in the fall of 2025.

These disappointing tender results will inevitably affect project timelines and the implementation of 2030 targets. In light of the headwinds facing the offshore wind industry in the US and several European countries, the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) has revised down its 2030 forecast by 24 %. GWEC now projects that global offshore wind capacity will increase from 83 GW in 2024 to 238 GW by 2030, with some capacity likely to be completed only after 2030.