EnergyOMNI's Perspectives I European Offshore Wind Market Q4 Updates

Edited by EnergyOMNI

1. The Netherlands: Tender Attracts No Bids

The latest offshore wind tender in the Netherlands closed on 30 October, a 1 GW Nederwiek IA project located in the North Sea. The Dutch government confirmed that no applications have been submitted, and the tender will be relaunched at a later time.

Sophie Hermans, Minister for Climate and Green Growth, stated that "European market conditions have now changed considerably." Developers face rising costs and slower-than-expected industrial electrification have made it more difficult for developers to secure long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs), reducing their willingness to invest. The failure of the Nederwiek IA tender will affect the country's offshore wind roadmap and 2030 targets. The Netherlands Enterprise Agency (RVO) noted that similar challenges are emerging in other European markets such as Germany, Denmark, the UK, and Belgium.

The government plans to launch a new offshore wind tender in 2026 and will decide in January whether the Nederwiek IA site will be included. The next tender will offer indirect cost subsidies, Contracts for Difference (CfDs), and a PPA guarantee fund established with the national investment fund Invest-NL. A budget of EUR 948 million has been earmarked for 2 GW of capacity.

2. Lithuania: Only One Bidder — Tender Declared Invalid

Lithuania launched a tender for a 700 MW offshore wind project located 30 km offshore, initially due on 8 September. After potential bidders raised concerns that the preparation period was too short, the government suspended and then extended the tender deadline to 7 October. However, only one developer, Ignitis, applied. As the number of bidders did not reach the minimum of two, the tender did not proceed. The government has yet to decide whether it will relaunch the tender.

This was Lithuania's second offshore wind tender. The first, held in 2023, awarded the 700 MW Curonian Nord project (36 km offshore) to a joint venture between Ocean Winds and Ignitis Renewables. Lithuania aims for renewables to account for 45% of electricity generation by 2030, with offshore wind energy seen as critical to reach the target. The government plans for 700 MW of installed offshore capacity by that year.

3. Ireland: Tender Concludes in November

Ireland conducted its second offshore wind auction this year and announced in late November that Ørsted and the Electricity Supply Board (ESB) secured the provisional award for a 900 MW project in the Tonn Nua area. The developers expect to reach a final investment decision (FID) in 2031.

4. Poland: First Auction to Begin in December

In June, Poland announced that its first offshore wind auction will begin on 17 December, with a maximum tendered capacity of 4 GW. The auction is expected to select projects offering the most favorable energy sales prices under a 25-year contract for difference support system. Prior to this, Poland allocated development rights through direct awards, granting seven projects in its first phase. The 1.2 GW Baltic Power project is already under construction and expected to begin operations in 2026. According to Poland's draft National Energy and Climate Plan, the country aims for 5.9 GW of offshore wind capacity by 2030.

5. United Kingdom: AR7 Begins — Industry Concerned Over Budget Cuts

The UK's Contracts for Difference Allocation Round 7 (AR7) opened in August, with sealed bids submitted in November and results scheduled for release on 14 January. The budget for fixed-bottom offshore wind is GBP 900 million, a 42% decrease than last year, while floating offshore wind receives GBP 180 million; neither category has a capacity cap. WindEurope stated that the low AR7 budget can support only 5–6 GW of capacity, which is far below the UK's 2030 target of 50 GW. RenewableUK also argued that the budget will not maximise investment in new offshore wind farms.

6. Denmark: New CfD-Based Tender After Failed Negative Bidding Round

Denmark's offshore wind tender in 2024, which adopted a negative bidding mechanism, attracted no bids. The government subsequently shifted to a CfD model and introduced a state subsidy scheme, relaunching the tender in November. The new tender covers three areas with a total capacity of 2.8 GW. Two sites will close in spring 2026, and one in autumn 2028. Sustainability and social responsibility requirements have been strengthened, including mandatory use of recyclable turbine blades and nature-inclusive design for one of the awarded sites.

Consulting firm BCG recently noted that the wave of failed tenders across Europe signals a market reversal. Oversupply in global tender capacity, rising costs, and stricter capital discipline among developers mean that governments must offer more attractive conditions. Although several countries are adjusting their policies and bidding rules, Q4 developments indicate that headwinds persist.