EnergyOMNI's Perspectives I 2026 Wind Power Industry Outlook

Edited by EnergyOMNI

Global energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie published the report "Wind power: What to look for in 2026", which includes seven things to look for in 2026.

1. Global wind capacity hit a record in 2025 but expected to fall 6% in 2026

According to the World Wind Energy Association (WWEA), global wind power installed capacity grew by 72 GW in the first half of 2025, bringing total capacity to 1,245 GW. It is projected that 2025 will see a total addition of 150 GW, pushing cumulative global capacity beyond 1,320 GW. Wood Mackenzie also assessed that 2025 will set a record for grid-connected wind capacity; however, capacity is expected to drop by 6% in 2026.

The slowdown is mainly due to reduced grid connections in China following the end of its 14th Five-Year Plan, while other regions, such as Europe and the United States, are expected to maintain strong growth. WindEurope projects that the EU will add an average of 22 GW of new wind capacity per year from 2025 to 2030. Wood Mackenzie's report published in December estimates the U.S. will connect 10.7 GW of wind capacity in 2026, but uncertainty is high due to rapid policy changes on offshore wind under the Trump administration and tariff impacts on turbine costs.

2. Offshore wind enters the 3.0 tender era

Offshore wind tender models have evolved from heavily subsidised 1.0 to sharply reduced 2.0 subsidies. Early offshore wind projects benefited from generous fixed-price contracts and feed-in tariffs through 2015. However, since 2022, offshore wind tenders 2.0, long hailed for lowering costs, have been criticised for failing to respond to sector headwinds. This caused tender failures, delays and offtake cancellations. Governments worldwide have now introduced 3.0 tender frameworks.

For example, the EU Net-Zero Industry Act (NZIA), regulations passed in March 2025, requires that from 2026 onward, mandates non-price criteria for at least 30% of renewable energy project tender volumes, or a minimum of 6 GW per year. Non-price criteria include sustainability and supply chain resilience.

Similarly, Taiwan plans to conduct the offshore wind auction zonal development 3-3 phase in 2026. According to the draft rules released by the Ministry of Economic Affairs in January, the auction will no longer use a zero-base bid; instead, a floor price will be set. In evaluating developers' capabilities, ESG planning will be considered alongside past performance and financial capacity.

In Denmark, the November 2025 auction of three wind farms emphasized not only power generation but also sustainability, social responsibility, and biodiversity. For instance, Hesselø is required to adopt nature-friendly designs and recyclable blades. The Danish Energy Agency also retains the right to request documentation from developers to ensure cybersecurity compliance.

WindEurope has provided recommendations for NZIA non-price criteria. For prequalification, cybersecurity, responsible business conduct, and ability to deliver the project fully and on time should be included. For prequalification or award criteria, aside from supply chain resilience, projects should also be assessed on at least one of the following: environmental sustainability, innovation, or system integration. Too many criteria should be avoided to prevent overburdening authorities and developers, ensuring a streamlined tender process for maximum benefit.

Wood Mackenzie mentioned, offtake cancellations will create a buildout lull from 2028 that cannot be reversed due to long lead times, damaging the supply chain. New tenders target the early 2030s for grid connections. If not managed, renewed supply chain constraints will limit capacity and drive up costs. The most impactful action that policymakers can take in 2026, then, is to spread project deployment rather than concentrating it. This will enable the supply chain to sustain operations through the late-decade downturn and invest in the subsequent upturn.

3. Large volumes ageing onshore wind turbines facing end-of-life decisions

Over the past 30 years, onshore wind capacity has grown rapidly, and many turbines are approaching the standard operational life of 20–25 years. Decommissioning will affect capacity and generation. Actual decommissioning to date remains limited. Many developers have opted to extend turbine lifetimes, particularly in Europe and North America, where retrofit and partial repowering solutions exist, often supported by incentives. Wood Mackenzie expects that the preference for lifetime extension will remain largely unchanged in 2026. However, a significant share of global decommissioned wind capacity occurred between 2023 and 2025. Wood Mackenzie predicts further increases in decommissioned capacity in 2026, driven mainly by the adoption of newer, larger turbines with cost and efficiency advantages.

4. Wind capex expected to stabilize in 2026

Overall wind costs are expected to stabilize in 2026, but for different reasons across regions:

• China: The Industry Self-Discipline Agreement launched in 2024 prevented excessive price competition and profit erosion. Onshore turbine prices rose sharply in 2025 and are expected to stabilize in 2026.
  
  
• Europe: Onshore turbine prices have peaked and are expected to plateau in 2026. United States: Onshore turbine prices may continue rising due to tariffs and policy factors.
  
  
• Offshore wind: Capital expenditure rose rapidly from 2021–2025, but as supply and pricing power shift, 2026 is expected to see stabilization.
  
  
  

5. Market-based pricing changes competitive dynamics

Many markets have shifted from guaranteed tariffs to market pricing. The industry value chain can no longer focus solely on cost but must emphasize predictable performance and system-level value. Transformation is already underway: Western turbine OEMs have shifted from price-led to value-driven strategies, focusing on modular designs, digitalization, AI-driven predictive maintenance, and grid integration. Chinese turbine manufacturers are moving beyond low-cost positioning to provide integrated solutions.

Regional wise, Wood Mackenzie focuses on China and United States.

6. Market-based price reforms challenge China's offshore wind competitiveness

China introduced a market-based pricing mechanism for renewable energy in January 2025. Offshore wind developers must first compete for project rights via auction, then secure revenue either through a tender or via merchant routes, rather than receiving guaranteed government tariffs. Wood Mackenzie notes that offshore wind cannot yet compete fully under a market-based regime and still requires policy support. New additions over the next three years are supported by awarded projects, but future growth will be significantly constrained by the new policies. Close attention in 2026 is needed to see whether new policy support will be introduced, which will affect offshore wind competitiveness over the next decade.

7. U.S. wind power at a crossroads

U.S. wind in 2026 faces policy deadlines, tariff-driven cost pressures, and shifting market dynamics. Under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) and updated IRS guidance, projects targeting 2029–2030 commercial operation must start construction by July 2026 to qualify for the Production Tax Credit (PTC), accelerating procurement.

Tariff uncertainty has led to delayed or staggered procurement, causing uneven activity in 2026. Permitting risks continue to affect projects, and offshore wind faces additional challenges from Trump-era stop-work orders.

Wood Mackenzie projects significant peak demand growth in the U.S. before 2030, highlighting the urgent market need for new wind capacity. A key question remains whether the Trump administration will moderate its anti-wind stance to achieve policy goals of lower energy prices and global AI leadership.